Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is getting more expensive as the world’s attention is on Iran

Key Points

• Research suggests Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" is becoming more expensive due to Senate changes, projected to add $4.2 trillion to deficits.

• It seems likely that the focus on the US-Iran conflict, with recent airstrikes, is diverting attention from these cost increases.

• The evidence leans toward the bill's rising cost being driven by legislative adjustments, not directly by the Iran situation, though economic impacts like higher oil prices may indirectly affect fiscal projections.

Background
Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" is a major legislative package passed by the House in May 2025, focusing on tax cuts and policy reforms. It's now in the Senate, where changes are increasing its cost, coinciding with global attention on the US-Iran conflict following airstrikes on June 22, 2025.

Cost Increases
Recent Senate modifications, including tax proposals, are expected to raise the bill's price tag, with analyses showing a $4.2 trillion addition to deficits over the next decade

. This is due to legislative adjustments, not direct ties to Iran, though economic fallout from the conflict could play a role.

Impact of Iran Conflict
The US-Iran conflict, with airstrikes on nuclear sites, has heightened geopolitical tensions, potentially affecting oil prices and economic growth, which could indirectly impact the bill's fiscal cost by reducing tax revenues. However, the main driver is Senate changes, with the Iran focus possibly overshadowing these cost increases.

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Comprehensive Analysis: Rising Costs of Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" Amid US-Iran Conflict

This note provides a detailed examination of the increasing costs associated with President Donald J. Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," a comprehensive legislative package, and how these developments coincide with heightened global attention on the US-Iran conflict following recent airstrikes. It explores the legislative changes, economic implications, and the interplay with geopolitical tensions, offering insights for policymakers, analysts, and investors as of 08:26 AM PDT on Monday, June 23, 2025.

Context and Legislative Background

The "One Big Beautiful Bill," officially the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1 - 119th Congress), was passed by the US House of Representatives on May 22, 2025, with a narrow 215-214 vote, and is now under consideration in the Senate

.

However, as the bill moves to the Senate, recent changes are driving up its cost, projected to add $4.2 trillion to deficits over the next decade, according to analyses .

Senate Changes and Cost Increases

The Senate is actively revising the bill, with the Finance Committee proposing changes that add and lengthen tax cuts for businesses and individuals, while slightly delaying the elimination of green energy tax credits, as noted in recent reports .

Detailed analyses, such as from the Tax Foundation, indicate that the tax provisions alone would reduce federal tax revenue by $4.0 trillion from 2025 through 2034 on a conventional basis before added interest costs, highlighting the fiscal challenge

.

Impact of the US-Iran Conflict

Simultaneously, the world's attention is focused on the escalating US-Iran conflict, with the US conducting airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites on June 22, 2025, marking a significant escalation

.

The economic impact of this conflict is significant, with potential adverse shocks to the global economy, particularly through higher energy costs and trade disruptions

.

Interplay Between Bill Costs and Iran Focus

While the bill's rising cost is primarily driven by legislative changes, the focus on the Iran conflict may be overshadowing these developments, potentially allowing cost increases to receive less scrutiny. The Yahoo Finance article highlights that the attack on Iran has overshadowed the bill's new higher price tag and removal of key provisions, suggesting a diversion of attention

.

Indirectly, the Iran conflict could affect the bill's fiscal projections. Higher oil prices and economic slowdown could reduce tax revenues, making the tax cuts more costly in terms of the deficit. Additionally, there is potential for increased defense spending in response to the conflict, though specific amendments to the bill for this purpose are not yet clear. The bill already includes defense priorities, such as funding for a missile defense shield and shipbuilding, and any further increases might require separate legislation or amendments during Senate deliberations

.

Supporting Data Tables

Below are tables summarizing key cost estimates and economic impacts:

Aspect	Details	Cost Estimate (USD Trillion)	Source
House-Passed Bill Tax Provisions	Reduces federal tax revenue	4.0 (2025-2034, conventional)	Big Beautiful Bill" House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis
Senate Changes	Projected cost over next decade, after untangling gimmicks	4.2 (added to deficits)	Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is getting more expensive as the world's attention is on Iran
Initial Senate Tax Proposals	Cost estimate before further analysis	0.441 (over coming decade)	Joint Committee on Taxation: JCX-29-25

Economic Impact of Iran Conflict	Details	Current Data (June 23, 2025)	Source
Oil Price Surge	Due to potential Strait of Hormuz closure	WTI Crude: $74.69/Bbl, up 0.87%	Crude Oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News
Inflation Risk	Higher energy costs could spike inflation	Not quantified	[America’s economy could face a war shock
Economic Growth	Potential slowdown due to trade disruptions and energy costs	Not quantified	US Strikes on Iran Come at Fragile Moment for the Global Economy - Bloomberg

Conclusion

The evidence suggests that Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill" is becoming more expensive primarily due to Senate modifications, with projected costs adding $4.2 trillion to deficits, driven by changes in tax provisions and potential adjustments to spending cuts. While the US-Iran conflict, marked by recent airstrikes, is not directly causing these cost increases, it is diverting global attention, potentially allowing these fiscal changes to receive less scrutiny. Indirectly, the conflict's economic impacts, such as higher oil prices and potential economic slowdown, could exacerbate the bill's fiscal cost by reducing tax revenues, highlighting the complex interplay between domestic legislation and geopolitical events.

Key Citations

• PASSED: The One, Big, Beautiful Bill Moves One Step Closer to President Trump’s Desk – Ways and Means

• 50 Wins in the One Big Beautiful Bill – The White House

• FACT: One, Big, Beautiful Bill Cuts Spending, Fuels Growth – The White House

• Big Beautiful Bill" House GOP Tax Plan: Preliminary Details and Analysis

• Trump’s big beautiful bill has some ugly details | Vox

• Trump's 'One Big Beautiful Bill' is getting more expensive as the world's attention is on Iran

• Joint Committee on Taxation: JCX-29-25

• X post by @marcgoldwein

• 3 big changes to Trump’s ‘big bill’ | PBS News

• Trump’s ‘One Big, Beautiful Bill’ With Trillions in Tax Cuts: What to Know | Kiplinger

• The Hill

• Explainer: Trump’s big, beautiful bill, in 5 charts | Vox

• U.S. launches strikes on 3 Iranian nuclear facilities, Trump says

• Strait of Hormuz saber-rattling ramps up following US attack. Whether the key waterway will close is less clear.

• Crude Oil - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News

• What would an Israel-Iran war mean for the global economy? | Al Jazeera

• America’s economy could face a war shock | CNN Business

• US Strikes on Iran Come at Fragile Moment for the Global Economy - Bloomberg

• Live updates: Senate to press forward with Trump agenda bill

• Congress week ahead: Iran debate amid funding battles

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