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Why Stocks Didn't Crash After Trump Confirmed Strikes on Iran's Nuclear Sites

2025-06-24 GGAMen游戏资讯 1

Key Points

  • Research suggests the Strait of Hormuz remains open despite increased tensions following the US attack on Iran.

  • It seems likely that Iran has not yet decided to close the strait, with the final decision pending approval from higher authorities.

  • The evidence leans toward continued ship traffic, though some vessels are taking precautions due to the heightened risks.

Current Status
As of June 23, 2025, the Strait of Hormuz is open, with ships continuing to pass through, though some are altering routes or minimizing time in the area due to safety concerns.

Iran's Position
Iran's parliament has approved a measure to close the strait in response to the US strikes, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and the Supreme Leader, and no closure has been implemented yet.

Market and Shipping Reactions
Shipping companies are taking precautions, with some tankers making U-turns or avoiding the strait, and shipping rates have increased, reflecting the uncertainty.

Comprehensive Analysis: Strait of Hormuz Status Following US Attack on Iran

This note provides a detailed examination of the current status of the Strait of Hormuz amid heightened tensions following the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, ordered by President Donald Trump. It explores the saber-rattling, Iran's potential actions, shipping responses, and the uncertainty surrounding the possibility of closure, offering insights for stakeholders in energy, maritime, and global trade sectors as of 08:16 AM PDT on Monday, June 23, 2025.

Context and Background

The Israel-Iran conflict, which intensified with Israeli strikes starting on June 13, 2025, entered a new phase with the US military's direct involvement. On June 22, 2025, the US launched precision strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, using B-2 bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, as reported by CNN. President Trump described the operation as a "spectacular military success," claiming the facilities were "completely and totally obliterated," and warned of further action if peace does not come quickly . This escalation has heightened geopolitical tensions, with Iran vowing retaliation and considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil transportation, as noted by The Economic Times.

The Strait of Hormuz, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, handles around 20% of global oil and gas demand, making it a critical artery for energy supplies, especially to Asia, which receives 84% of the oil passing through, as per Al Arabiya.

Current Status of the Strait

As of June 23, 2025, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, with ship traffic continuing, though under heightened caution. Recent reports indicate that vessels are making U-turns, zig-zagging, pausing, and altering courses due to the US military strikes and regional violence, as detailed in Reuters. At least five tankers have turned away, with empty tanker entries down 32% and loaded departures down 27% from early May levels, reflecting increased risk perception. However, maritime traffic data from Bloomberg and Maritime Executive confirm that outbound transits remain within daily norms, with about a dozen ships observed in the traffic separation scheme in the early hours of June 23, mostly eastbound, based on AIS data from Pole Star. Routine traffic levels are confirmed by Kpler, indicating the strait is operational, though with heavy GPS jamming reported, potentially affecting navigation and leading to some "dark" traffic with AIS turned off.

Shipping companies are responding to the risks. Japan's Nippon Yusen and Mitsui O.S.K. Lines are minimizing time in the Gulf, while Formosa Petrochemical Corp vessels enter only near loading time, as noted in Reuters. Greece's shipping ministry has urged vessels to reassess passage and maintain maximum security levels, maximizing distance from Iranian waters, and BIMCO has advised caution, particularly due to renewed Houthi threats against US and Israel-affiliated shipping, as per Maritime Executive.

Iran's Position and Saber-Rattling

Iran's response has included significant saber-rattling, with the parliament approving a measure to close the strait on June 22, 2025, as reported by Press TV and Newsweek. This vote, however, is advisory, and the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as confirmed by multiple sources, including Politico and BBC. As of June 23, there is no indication that the council has approved the closure, and experts suggest Iran may be using the threat as leverage rather than a definitive action, given the economic consequences, as noted in CNBC. Historical threats, such as in 2018 and 2011-2012, have not resulted in closure, with analysts like Alhajji from CNBC arguing it's physically challenging due to the strait's width and international waters.

Recent statements include calls from a prominent adviser to Khamenei for closure, as per CNN, and IRGC commanders like Brigadier General Tangsiri suggesting closure within hours, as seen in X posts

. However, X posts claiming the strait is closed, such as by @ShaykhSulaiman and @Politicx2029, lack verification and contradict maritime traffic data, suggesting misinformation.


Market and Economic Implications

The saber-rattling has already impacted shipping rates, with supertanker rates more than doubling to over $60,000 a day, as per Reuters. Oil prices have surged, with Brent and WTI hitting five-month highs, reflecting fears of closure, as reported in Reuters. Analysts warn that closure could lead to an 80% jump in oil prices within the first week, disturbing global energy security, as per Press TV. Countries like China, India, South Korea, and Europe, heavily reliant on the strait, face significant risks, as noted in Al Arabiya and Euronews.

Supporting Data Tables

Below are tables summarizing key details and impacts:

DetailInformation
Date of US StrikesJune 22, 2025
Iranian Parliament's ActionApproved measure to close Strait of Hormuz on June 22, 2025
Final Decision MakerIran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei
Current Status of StraitOpen, with routine traffic levels as of June 23, 2025
Number of Ships ObservedAbout a dozen, mostly eastbound, early hours of June 23, 2025
Shipping PrecautionsTankers making U-turns, zig-zagging, minimizing time in Gulf
Impact on Shipping RatesSupertanker rates doubled to over $60,000 a day
Oil and Gas Flow Through Strait~20% of global demand, 17-18 million barrels per day

Potential Consequences of ClosureDescription
Oil Price ImpactPotential 80% jump within first week, major spikes in global prices
Economic ImpactDisturbance in global energy security, multinational corporations at risk
Affected RegionsChina, India, South Korea, Europe, heavily reliant on Middle East oil

Conclusion

The Strait of Hormuz remains open as of June 23, 2025, with ship traffic continuing, though under heightened caution due to increased saber-rattling following the US attack on Iran. Iran's parliament has approved a measure to close the strait, but the final decision rests with the Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader, and no closure has been implemented. Shipping companies are taking precautions, with some vessels altering routes and shipping rates rising, reflecting the uncertainty. The possibility of closure remains a concern, but current maritime data suggests the strait is operational, with routine traffic levels.

Key Citations


2025-06-23 23:24:37

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