Why Global Markets Shrugged Off U.S. Strikes on Iran Nuclear Sites

Key Points

• Research suggests Wall Street strategists have mixed views on the US strikes on Iran, with some seeing relief and others cautioning about risks.

• It seems likely that markets may remain stable if the conflict is contained, but escalation could impact oil prices and equities.

• The evidence leans toward a wait-and-see approach, with many monitoring Iran's response for future market direction.

Background

The US conducted airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, escalating tensions in the Middle East. This has prompted varied reactions from Wall Street strategists, given the potential economic implications.

Strategists' Views

Optimistic Perspectives:

• Some strategists, like Dan Ives from Wedbush, view the strikes as a relief, believing the nuclear threat is gone and risks of conflict spreading are minimal .

• Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research sees a continued bull market, targeting the S&P 500 at 6,500 by year-end, citing reestablished US deterrence .

• Mark Malek from Siebert Financial considers it positive for stocks, seeing it as a "one and done" event, though noting risks if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz .

Cautious Perspectives:

• Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy warns that if Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz, oil could surge above $100 per barrel, potentially dropping stocks by 10% .

• Lori Calvasina from RBC Capital Markets notes a longer conflict could challenge US equities, especially given current valuations .

• Mark Spindel from Potomac River Capital expects initial market alarm and volatility, particularly in oil .

Wait-and-See Approach:

• Kit Juckes from Societe Generale describes the market reaction as "muted so far," awaiting Iran's response .

• Nicholas Colas from DataTrek Research suggests markets might discount downside scenarios and resume rallying, but notes volatility challenges .

Conclusion

Wall Street strategists are divided, with some optimistic about market stability and others cautious about escalation risks. Many are closely watching Iran's next moves, as they will likely shape market trends in the coming days.

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Comprehensive Analysis: Wall Street Strategists' Reactions to US Strikes on Iran

This note provides a detailed examination of the opinions expressed by Wall Street strategists following the US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22, 2025, ordered by President Donald Trump. It explores the range of perspectives, from optimistic to cautious, and highlights the factors influencing their views, offering insights for investors and analysts as of 08:08 AM PDT on Monday, June 23, 2025.

Context and Market Overview

The Israel-Iran conflict, which intensified with Israeli strikes starting on June 13, 2025, entered a new phase with the US military's direct involvement. On June 22, 2025, the US launched precision strikes on three key Iranian nuclear sites: Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, using B-2 bombers and submarine-launched Tomahawk missiles, as reported by CNN. President Trump described the operation as a "spectacular military success," claiming the facilities were "completely and totally obliterated," and warned of further action if peace does not come quickly ([CBS News]([invalid url, do not cite])). This escalation has heightened geopolitical tensions, with Iran vowing retaliation and considering closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint for global oil transportation, as noted by [The Economic Times]([invalid url, do not cite]).

Wall Street strategists, given their role in guiding investment decisions, have offered varied reactions, reflecting the complexity of the situation and its potential economic impacts.

Detailed Strategists' Opinions

The following table summarizes the opinions of Wall Street strategists, categorized by their outlook:

Strategist	Organization	Opinion	Market Impact Mentioned
Dan Ives	Wedbush Securities	Markets view the attack as a relief, nuclear threat gone, minimal risks of spreading	Positive for markets, sees conflict as isolated
Ed Yardeni	Yardeni Research	Bull market intact, S&P 500 to 6,500 by end of 2025, reestablished deterrence	Optimistic, targets higher equity valuations
Mark Malek	Siebert Financial	Positive for stocks, "one and done," but risk if Iran closes Strait of Hormuz	Positive for stocks, conditional on containment
Jamie Cox	Harris Financial Group	Oil will spike initially but stabilize in days, Iran likely to seek peace deal	Oil spike expected, then stabilization
Marko Papic	GeoMacro Strategy	Markets subdued, but if Strait closed, oil >$100, stocks down ~10%	Significant downside risk with escalation
Lori Calvasina	RBC Capital Markets	Longer, broader conflict challenging for US equities, tricky timing	Challenging for equities, especially valuations
Mark Spindel	Potomac River Capital	Initial alarm, uncertainty, volatility, especially in oil	Volatility expected, particularly in oil
Kit Juckes	Societe Generale	Market reaction "muted so far," waiting for Iran's response	Cautious, awaiting further developments
Nicholas Colas	DataTrek Research	Markets likely to discount downside, could resume rally, volatility challenges	Optimistic but notes investor challenges
George Vessey	Conerva	Tensions supporting dollar, potential oil price impact if Strait closed	Dollar strength, oil risk with escalation
Peter Boockvar	Bleakley Financial Group	If Iran accepts end of nuclear desires, markets fine; unlikely to disrupt oil	Optimistic, contingent on Iran's acceptance

Analysis of Perspectives

Optimistic Views:Several strategists, such as Dan Ives from Wedbush, see the US strikes as removing a significant overhang on markets. Ives, quoted in Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran, stated, "The markets view the attack on Iran as a relief with the nuclear threat now gone for the region," adding that he sees minimal risks of the Iran-Israel conflict spreading, viewing it as more isolated. Similarly, Ed Yardeni from Yardeni Research, also in the same article, maintains his bullish outlook, targeting the S&P 500 at 6,500 by the end of 2025, arguing that Trump has reestablished America's military deterrence. Mark Malek from Siebert Financial, quoted in Investors react to US attack on Iran nuclear sites, sees the situation as positive for the stock market, describing it as a "one and done" event, though he notes the risk if Iran escalates by closing the Strait of Hormuz. Jamie Cox from Harris Financial Group, also in the same article, expects an initial oil spike but believes it will level in a few days, suggesting Iran has lost leverage and is likely to seek a peace deal.

Cautious Views:Conversely, some strategists are more wary of potential escalations. Marko Papic from GeoMacro Strategy, in Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran, notes that while markets are currently subdued due to Iran's limited retaliation tools, a closure of the Strait of Hormuz could push oil prices north of $100 per barrel, leading to a 10% drop in stocks and a rush to safe havens. Lori Calvasina from RBC Capital Markets, in ‘Challenging for investors’: What Wall Street strategists are saying about the US strikes on Iran, warns that a longer, broader conflict could be challenging for US equities, especially given the current valuation levels, which she describes as fairly valued or slightly overvalued fundamentally but with more room to run from a sentiment perspective. Mark Spindel from Potomac River Capital, in Investors react to US attack on Iran nuclear sites, expects initial market alarm and increased volatility, particularly in oil, noting, "I think the uncertainty is going to blanket the markets." George Vessey from Conerva, in Wall Street is acting like America didn't just strike Iran, highlights that escalating tensions are injecting support for the dollar via the commodity channel, pointing to potential oil price impacts if the Strait is closed.

Wait-and-See Approach:Some strategists are adopting a wait-and-see stance, awaiting Iran's response. Kit Juckes from Societe Generale, in Wall Street is acting like America didn't just strike Iran, describes the market reaction as "so far, so muted," indicating that investors are waiting for communications from Ayatollah Khamenei or indications of retaliation. Nicholas Colas from DataTrek Research, in ‘Challenging for investors’: What Wall Street strategists are saying about the US strikes on Iran, suggests that markets are likely to discount downside scenarios and could resume their rally despite negative headlines, but he notes the challenges volatility poses for investors, highlighting the disconnect between human focus on the present and markets' forward-looking gaze.

Comparative Analysis

Historically, geopolitical events like the 2019 Iran-US tensions and the 2022 Ukraine war have shown mixed market reactions, with initial volatility often followed by stabilization if conflicts are contained. The current situation, with direct US involvement, amplifies risks, particularly given the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which could disrupt 20% of global oil supply, as per [AP News]([invalid url, do not cite]). X posts from various users, such as @DivesTech and @DavidNStocks1, echo Ives' view of relief, while @TMResearch2025 mentions other strategists like Jack Ablin noting increased energy prices and inflation risks, adding to the cautious perspective.

Supporting Data and Market Reactions

Recent market data shows US stocks opened modestly lower on June 23, 2025, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average shedding less than 100 points, as reported in ‘Challenging for investors’: What Wall Street strategists are saying about the US strikes on Iran. Oil prices, initially jumping on supply concerns, pulled back, with WTI crude at $73 per barrel and Brent at $76 per barrel, indicating mixed reactions.

Conclusion

Wall Street strategists present a spectrum of opinions on the US strikes on Iran, ranging from optimistic views seeing market relief and potential rallies to cautious warnings about escalation risks, particularly regarding oil supply disruptions. Many are adopting a wait-and-see approach, emphasizing that Iran's response will be pivotal in determining market trends. Investors are advised to monitor geopolitical developments closely, as the situation remains fluid and could significantly impact global markets.

Key Citations

• Why global markets are brushing off U.S. strikes on Iran

• Wall Street is acting like America didn't just strike Iran

• ‘Challenging for investors’: What Wall Street strategists are saying about the US strikes on Iran

• Investors react to US attack on Iran nuclear sites

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