Why Nvidia Hasn't Sealed 15% Kickback Agreement for China AI Chip Sales with US Authorities

The statement regarding Nvidia's pending agreement to remit 15% of certain artificial intelligence (AI) chip sales in China to the United States government aligns with recent developments. As of August 28, 2025, the arrangement remains in preliminary discussions and has not been formalized into regulatory requirements.

Background on the Proposed Arrangement

In early August 2025, reports emerged indicating that Nvidia Corporation and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (AMD) had tentatively agreed to provide the U.S. government with 15% of revenues from specific AI chip sales to China, such as Nvidia's H20 accelerator. This concession was proposed in exchange for export licenses allowing the resumption of such sales, which had been restricted under U.S. export controls amid geopolitical tensions. The Trump administration framed this as a mechanism to offset potential national security risks while permitting American companies to access the Chinese market. Initial announcements suggested the deal was in place, with Nvidia expected to contribute approximately 15% of H20 chip revenues.

Current Status and Challenges

However, Nvidia's Chief Financial Officer, Colette Kress, clarified during a recent earnings discussion that the company cannot proceed with payments until the White House codifies the plan into enforceable regulations. She noted ongoing communications with the government but emphasized that, absent a formal regulatory document, Nvidia holds valid export licenses and is not obligated to remit the 15% commission. A key quote from Kress highlights this position: “We have been communicating. If nothing shows up, I’ve got licenses. I don’t have to do this 15% until I see something that is a true regulatory document.” Due to this uncertainty, Nvidia has excluded potential China-related revenues—estimated at up to $5 billion—from its financial projections.

The delay stems from several factors, including the need for the U.S. government to specify implementation details and potential legal risks. Nvidia has disclosed in regulatory filings that the arrangement could expose the company to litigation, elevate operational costs, and undermine its competitive standing against rivals not subject to similar terms. Broader industry concerns involve balancing U.S. technological leadership in AI with access to China's substantial market, as exclusion could accelerate the development of domestic Chinese alternatives.

Future Implications

Nvidia continues to advocate for expanded access to China, including the potential introduction of its advanced Blackwell AI chip, with CEO Jensen Huang describing it as a "real possibility" contingent on favorable export policies. The situation remains fluid, with no definitive timeline for resolution provided by either party. Stakeholders should monitor official announcements from the White House or Nvidia for updates on regulatory progress.

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