Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin stated today that tariffs are likely to increase inflation in the coming months. While previous tariff hikes had minimal effects on inflation, businesses are now planning to pass some of the increased import costs to consumers, which may lead to higher prices. However, Barkin does not anticipate the impact on inflation to be as severe as during the pandemic, noting that consumers may shift away from tariffed goods, potentially limiting some price increases.
The Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, amidst ongoing uncertainty about the economic outlook. Barkin acknowledged the Fed is balancing risks to both inflation and employment and is prepared to act as needed. He highlighted that the current state of the economy appears strong, with encouraging inflation data and solid job growth, allowing the Fed time to assess developments carefully. Barkin emphasized the importance of monitoring the situation closely, stating, "Given the strength in today’s economy, we have time to track developments patiently and allow the visibility to improve."