Japan top trade negotiator holds two phone meetings with Lutnick

Key Points

• Research suggests that the two phone meetings between Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick focused on discussing tariffs, with a critical July 9, 2025, deadline approaching for higher levies.

• It seems likely that these discussions aimed to address the expiration of a pause on a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports, amidst ongoing trade negotiations.

• The evidence leans toward the meetings being part of efforts to reach a trade deal, though progress appears stalled, with key issues including US tariffs on Japanese automobiles and Japan's restrictions on US rice imports.

Background

Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, who serves as the Economic Revitalization Minister, recently held two phone meetings with Howard Lutnick, the US Commerce Secretary, to discuss trade relations between the two nations.

Meeting Details

The meetings took place on Thursday, July 3, 2025, for 45 minutes, and on Saturday, July 5, 2025, for about an hour. Both discussions centered on US tariffs, particularly with the July 9, 2025, deadline looming, when a pause on a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese goods is set to expire.

Purpose and Context

These phone calls were part of ongoing negotiations to potentially avert higher tariffs, with both sides reaffirming their positions and engaging in in-depth exchanges. The talks are critical as they occur ahead of a deadline that could see increased tariffs if no agreement is reached, impacting industries like automobiles in Japan.

Current Status

While the meetings indicate continued dialogue, recent reports suggest that negotiations are deadlocked, with Japan seeking relief from auto tariffs and the US pushing for concessions like increased rice imports. The outcome remains uncertain, with potential economic implications for both countries.

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Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Japan-US Trade Negotiations and Recent Phone Meetings

Japan's top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, held two phone meetings with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on July 3 and July 5, 2025, to discuss ongoing trade negotiations, particularly focusing on tariffs as a critical July 9 deadline approaches. This analysis, based on recent news reports and statements, explores the details of these meetings, their context, and the broader implications for US-Japan trade relations.

Background and Participants

Ryosei Akazawa, Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister, is the chief trade negotiator responsible for leading Tokyo's efforts in bilateral trade discussions. Howard Lutnick, appointed as US Commerce Secretary, plays a central role in the Trump administration's trade and tariff policies, often joining high-level negotiations. These phone meetings, occurring on July 3 for 45 minutes and July 5 for about an hour, were part of a series of engagements aimed at addressing trade barriers.

Meeting Details

According to a statement from Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat, the meetings involved in-depth exchanges of views on US tariffs, with both parties reaffirming their respective positions. The July 3 call lasted 45 minutes, while the July 5 call extended to about an hour. The discussions were prompted by the approaching July 9 deadline, when a pause on a 24% reciprocal tariff on Japanese imports is set to expire, potentially leading to higher levies if no agreement is reached.

Policy Environment and Tariff Context

The negotiations are set against the backdrop of recent US tariff policies under President Donald Trump, which include a 25% tariff on Japanese automobiles and a reciprocal tariff of 24% on Japanese goods, paused since April 2025 for 90 days to allow for trade talks. This pause is due to end on July 9, creating urgency for both nations to find a resolution. Recent reports, such as those from Bloomberg and Reuters, highlight that Japan is seeking to eliminate or reduce these tariffs, particularly on autos, while the US is pushing for concessions, including increased market access for American agricultural products like rice.

Trump has expressed skepticism about reaching a deal, with statements suggesting potential tariff increases to 30-35% if negotiations fail. This stance has been echoed in social media posts and news articles, indicating a contentious atmosphere. Japan, on the other hand, has emphasized a flexible approach, with Akazawa stating that July 9 is not a fixed deadline, aiming to protect national interests ahead of an upper house election on July 20, 2025.

Economic Implications

The tariff discussions have significant economic implications, particularly for Japan's auto industry, which has seen exports to the US shrink for the first time in eight months in June 2025, as reported by Reuters. Japanese automakers like Toyota and Subaru have refrained from price hikes to mitigate costs, but profits are at risk. The US, meanwhile, is focused on reducing trade deficits and increasing exports, with rice being a notable point of contention, as Japan has resisted importing more American rice.

Japan has also introduced economic measures, such as a $6.3 billion spending package approved in May 2025, to shield businesses and households from tariff impacts, as noted by The New York Times. This includes support for corporate financing and subsidies for energy costs, underscoring the economic pressure from potential tariff hikes.

Negotiation Challenges

Recent news articles, including those from The Japan Times and CNN, suggest that negotiations are deadlocked, with key sticking points including autos and rice. The New York Times reported on July 2, 2025, that Japan may have misjudged the depth of Trump's frustration, with talks stalling ahead of the deadline. Social media posts on X (formerly Twitter) from early July 2025 reflect public and expert concerns, with some suggesting Japan is "running circles around Trump" while others warn of failed talks and economic impacts.

Future Risks and Recommendations

The evidence leans toward these phone meetings being a critical but challenging step in ongoing negotiations, with the risk of higher tariffs if no deal is reached by July 9. Continued coordination, as stated by Japan’s Cabinet Secretariat, is essential, but the outcome remains uncertain. For Japan, protecting national interests while avoiding economic downturn is crucial, especially with the upcoming election. For the US, securing trade concessions aligns with broader tariff strategies affecting multiple partners, as seen in negotiations with the EU and India.

To mitigate risks, both sides could consider interim agreements to extend the tariff pause, focusing on sectors with mutual benefits, such as technology and energy, as suggested in some X posts. Long-term, stable trade policies and diplomatic efforts will be necessary to address underlying trade imbalances and foster economic cooperation.

Table: Summary of Key Meeting Details and Tariff Context

Date	Duration	Participants	Focus	Context
July 3, 2025	45 minutes	Ryosei Akazawa, Howard Lutnick	US tariffs	Part of negotiations, July 9 deadline for 24% reciprocal tariff pause
July 5, 2025	1 hour	Ryosei Akazawa, Howard Lutnick	US tariffs, in-depth exchange	Reaffirmed positions, continued coordination planned

Sources:

• Bloomberg: Japan Top Trade Negotiator Holds Two Phone Meetings With Lutnick

• Reuters: Japan tariff negotiator held "in-depth" talks with Lutnick, Japan government says

• The Japan Times: Japan and U.S. trade negotiators spoke again Saturday

• CNN Business: ‘Spoiled’ Japan may not get a US trade deal, Trump warns

• The New York Times: How U.S.-Japan Tariff Talks Got Stuck on Cars and Rice

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