Trump's immigration crackdown is hurting sales of America's most popular beer

Key Points

• Research suggests that Trump's immigration crackdown is impacting sales of Modelo Especial, currently America's best-selling beer, due to reduced social activities among Hispanic consumers.

• It seems likely that fears related to deportation are causing Hispanic customers, a significant portion of Modelo's market, to decrease outings and gatherings where beer is consumed.

• The evidence leans toward a connection between these policies and a reported 3.3% decline in beer shipment volumes for Constellation Brands, Modelo's parent company, in their latest quarter.

Background

America's most popular beer, in terms of sales, is Modelo Especial, which overtook Bud Light in 2023 to become the top-selling brand. Recent reports indicate that sales have been affected by President Trump's immigration policies, particularly through their impact on the Hispanic community, which constitutes roughly half of Constellation Brands' customer base.

Impact on Sales

Constellation Brands reported a 3.3% decline in beer shipment volumes in their latest quarter, attributing this to decreased social gatherings and outings among Hispanic consumers. These consumers are reportedly reducing activities such as eating out and hosting social events due to fears of deportation and immigration enforcement actions. This shift in behavior is most noticeable in neighborhoods with large Hispanic populations, where beer sales have slowed significantly.

Consumer Behavior Changes

The immigration crackdown has led to changes in shopping patterns, with Latino shoppers increasingly opting for large retail chains to avoid drawing attention, rather than frequenting smaller convenience stores or bodegas where beer is often purchased. This shift is contributing to the sales decline for Modelo and similar brands.

Broader Implications

This trend is not isolated to Constellation Brands; other companies, including Burlington, Foot Locker, Colgate-Palmolive, and Monster, have also noted sluggish sales among Hispanic customers, suggesting a broader impact on consumer behavior due to immigration policy concerns. Market research from Circana indicates that discretionary purchases among Hispanic consumers have declined faster than among non-Hispanic customers this year.

Supporting Evidence

Statements from Constellation Brands' CEO, Bill Newlands, highlight the concern, noting, "A lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now," and pointing to declining social gatherings as a key factor. An analyst from RBC Capital Markets, Nik Modi, also commented on the mounting pressure on Hispanic consumers, leading to a retail pullback.

Supporting URLs:

• Yahoo Finance: Trump's immigration crackdown is hurting sales of America's most popular beer

• CNN: Trump’s immigration crackdown is hitting Modelo and Corona sales, CEO says

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Detailed Analysis and Observations

This section provides a comprehensive examination of the impact of President Trump's immigration policies on the sales of Modelo Especial, identified as America's most popular beer based on recent sales data. The analysis draws on multiple sources, including corporate earnings reports, market research, and expert commentary, to present a thorough understanding of the situation as of July 5, 2025.

Identification of America's Most Popular Beer

Recent data from various sources, including Statista and Forbes, confirm that Modelo Especial, owned by Constellation Brands, has been the leading beer brand in the United States since June 2023, surpassing Bud Light. This is based on retail sales figures, with Modelo achieving over $4.1 billion in sales in 2024, compared to Bud Light's $3.4 billion in the same period. While popularity metrics based on search interest (e.g., Google Trends, YouGov Ratings) sometimes highlight brands like Miller or Guinness, sales data, which is more relevant to the context of sales impact, clearly positions Modelo Especial as the top seller.

Impact of Immigration Policies on Sales

Constellation Brands reported a 3.3% decline in beer shipment volumes for the fiscal first quarter of 2026, ending in early 2025, with revenue at $2.52 billion, missing the expected $2.55 billion, and adjusted earnings per share at $3.22, below the anticipated $3.32. The company attributes this decline to deteriorated consumer sentiment and increased socioeconomic headwinds, particularly affecting their core Hispanic consumer base, which constitutes approximately half of their business.

CEO Bill Newlands, during a conference call with investors, stated, "Our Hispanic consumer, which reflects roughly half our business ... is very interested in beer," but noted that "occasions on which beer is consumed have decreased ... [they're] not going out to eat as much as they had, they're having less social occasions at home." This reduction in social activities is linked to fears of immigration enforcement, including increased Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids and deportation scares, prompting Hispanic consumers to limit outings and gatherings.

A CNN article from April 11, 2025, corroborates this, reporting a 1% drop in beer shipments for the previous quarter and noting that the slowdown is most pronounced at retailers in neighborhoods with large Hispanic populations. The article quotes Newlands saying, "A lot of consumers in the Hispanic community are concerned right now," and highlights that social gatherings, a key consumption occasion for beer, are declining due to these concerns.

Changes in Consumer Behavior

The immigration crackdown has led to noticeable shifts in shopping and consumption patterns among Hispanic consumers. According to the CNN report, Latino shoppers are increasingly shifting to large retail chains to blend in, avoiding smaller convenience stores or bodegas where they might be more visible. This behavioral change is reducing beer sales at these smaller outlets, which are traditional points of purchase for brands like Modelo. The report also cites market research from Circana, indicating that discretionary purchases among Hispanic consumers have fallen faster than among non-Hispanic customers this year, further supporting the impact on beer sales.

Broader Industry Impact

The impact is not limited to Constellation Brands. Other companies have reported similar effects on Hispanic consumer behavior. For instance, Burlington, Foot Locker, Colgate-Palmolive, and Monster have noted sluggish sales among this demographic, as mentioned in the CNN article. Colgate-Palmolive's Vice President, John Faucher, stated, "There obviously is an impact on Hispanic demand, as we’ve seen, lower traffic from Hispanic consumers." This suggests a broader economic effect of immigration policy concerns on discretionary spending, particularly in sectors reliant on social and leisure activities.

An analyst from RBC Capital Markets, Nik Modi, commented on the mounting pressure on Hispanic consumers due to immigration policy concerns, noting, "This is leading to a retail pullback," which aligns with the observed decline in beer sales. Additionally, employment data shows construction job growth slowed to 1.5% in May 2025, down from 2.8% a year ago, affecting a core audience for beer consumption, such as construction workers, further exacerbating the sales decline.

Corporate Outlook and Expert Commentary

Constellation Brands has adjusted its fiscal year outlook, expecting beer category organic net sales growth to be between 0% and 3%, a cautious projection given the current environment. Wine and spirits sales are expected to decline by 17% to 20%, indicating broader challenges. Dave Williams from Bump Williams Consulting noted, "There are fewer opportunities for beer consumption due to changed consumer behaviors," reinforcing the link between immigration policies and reduced consumption occasions.

Contextual Factors and Policy Details

The Trump administration's immigration crackdown, as reported in various news outlets, includes aggressive measures such as invoking wartime authority for deportations and increased enforcement actions. NPR and ABC News articles from early 2025 highlight how these policies are sweeping up longtime residents and workers, including those with no serious criminal records, creating a climate of fear. This is exemplified by incidents such as the mistaken deportation of a Salvadoran man, as reported by CNN, which has heightened apprehension among immigrant communities.

Summary of Findings

In conclusion, research suggests that Trump's immigration crackdown is significantly impacting sales of Modelo Especial, America's most popular beer by sales, through its effect on Hispanic consumer behavior. The evidence leans toward a causal relationship, with corporate reports and market analyses indicating a 3.3% decline in beer shipments, reduced social gatherings, and shifts in shopping patterns due to deportation fears. This impact is part of a broader trend affecting multiple industries, supported by expert commentary and market research, as of July 5, 2025.

Supporting URLs:

• Yahoo Finance: Trump's immigration crackdown is hurting sales of America's most popular beer

• CNN: Trump’s immigration crackdown is hitting Modelo and Corona sales, CEO says

• NPR: How Trump's immigration crackdown is sweeping up longtime residents and workers

• ABC News: Trump's immigration crackdown ripples across the US

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