Non-farm payrolls to be released tonight: How low will the drop in new employment force the Fed to cut interest rates?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the May 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET. Economists anticipate a slowdown in job creation, with consensus estimates projecting an addition of approximately 125,000 to 130,000 jobs, down from April's 177,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year

Recent indicators have heightened concerns about the labor market's health. The ADP private payrolls report showed a significant miss, with only 37,000 jobs added in May, far below expectations. Additionally, initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, the highest level in 2025, suggesting potential cracks in employment stability .

Market participants are closely watching the NFP report for signs that could influence Federal Reserve policy. While the Fed has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing inflation concerns over employment softness, a notably weak jobs report could shift expectations toward potential rate cuts later in the year. Currently, markets have priced in the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of 2025 .

Analysts suggest that if the NFP report shows job gains below 100,000, it could signal a more pronounced economic slowdown, potentially prompting the Fed to consider easing monetary policy sooner than anticipated. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job growth may reinforce the Fed's current stance of holding rates steady .

Given the current economic indicators and market sentiment, the upcoming NFP report is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the May 2025 Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report tonight at 8:30 p.m. ET. Economists anticipate a slowdown in job creation, with consensus estimates projecting an addition of approximately 125,000 to 130,000 jobs, down from April's 177,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings are forecasted to rise by 0.3% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year

Recent indicators have heightened concerns about the labor market's health. The ADP private payrolls report showed a significant miss, with only 37,000 jobs added in May, far below expectations. Additionally, initial jobless claims rose to 247,000, the highest level in 2025, suggesting potential cracks in employment stability .

Market participants are closely watching the NFP report for signs that could influence Federal Reserve policy. While the Fed has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing inflation concerns over employment softness, a notably weak jobs report could shift expectations toward potential rate cuts later in the year. Currently, markets have priced in the possibility of two rate cuts by the end of 2025 .

Analysts suggest that if the NFP report shows job gains below 100,000, it could signal a more pronounced economic slowdown, potentially prompting the Fed to consider easing monetary policy sooner than anticipated. Conversely, stronger-than-expected job growth may reinforce the Fed's current stance of holding rates steady .

Given the current economic indicators and market sentiment, the upcoming NFP report is poised to play a pivotal role in shaping expectations for Federal Reserve actions in the coming months.

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https://www.nnb5.com/non-farm-payrolls-to-be-released-tonight-how-low-will-the-drop-in-new-employment-force-the-fed-to-cut-interest-rates

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