Debunking the 'Trump Effect': Biden’s Role in U.S. Investment Growth

Analysis of the 'Trump Effect' Website: Misattributing Investments and Biden’s Influence

Key Points:

• The "Trump Effect" website claims substantial U.S. investments driven by Trump's policies, but research shows many of these investments were initiated under Biden or represent routine corporate spending.

• Independent analyses suggest at least $1.3 trillion of the $2.6 trillion in claimed investments originated under Biden or were influenced by policies like the CHIPS Act, which was enacted during his administration.

• Expert opinions emphasize that the "Trump Effect" website may exaggerate investment claims, blurring the lines between routine spending and actual policy-driven investments.

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Overview of the "Trump Effect" Website Claims

The "Trump Effect" website, launched during Donald Trump’s second term, claims credit for over $2.6 trillion in U.S. investments, which it suggests were spurred by Trump’s economic policies. These claims have generated significant attention, but independent reviews, including from Reuters and Al Jazeera, reveal a different picture: much of the investment actually originated during President Joe Biden’s administration or stemmed from previously planned corporate spending.

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Claims Analysis: Exaggeration and Misattribution

While the "Trump Effect" website claims up to $14 trillion in U.S. investments, a review by Reuters found that nearly half of the $2.6 trillion attributed to Trump’s policies actually originated under Biden or were routine investments rebranded as new initiatives. This includes projects that were already in the works under Biden’s policies, such as the CHIPS Act, which significantly influenced investments in semiconductor manufacturing.

Specific Examples of Misattribution:

• Hyundai’s $5.8 billion steel plant in Louisiana: Announced in March 2025 but selected in December 2024, before Trump’s second term.

• TSMC’s $100 billion U.S. investment: Accelerated by Biden’s CHIPS Act, providing $6.6 billion in funding for semiconductor facilities near Phoenix.

• Corning’s $1.5 billion investment in Michigan: Includes $900 million announced in February 2024, benefiting from Biden’s CHIPS and Science Act.

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Impact of Biden’s Policies

Biden’s policies, particularly the CHIPS and Science Act, have been instrumental in driving key investments, especially in high-tech sectors like semiconductors. These policies are frequently credited as contributing to the large-scale investments touted by the "Trump Effect" website, suggesting that much of the success can be traced back to Biden-era initiatives rather than Trump’s economic agenda.

The CHIPS Act, in particular, played a crucial role in accelerating projects such as TSMC’s $100 billion semiconductor investment and other tech-related ventures that are included in the "Trump Effect" claims. This overlap highlights how previous policies, even if implemented under Biden, continue to influence the current economic landscape.

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Expert Insights and Criticism

Experts, including economists like Mark Zandi from Moody’s, point out that while Trump’s tax cuts and tariffs had some impact on investments, they may have also created market uncertainty that stifled certain growth areas. Additionally, experts like Richard Stern from the Heritage Foundation suggest that the real effects of deregulation and extended tax cuts might be more visible in 2025 or 2026. However, many of the investments being claimed are a mix of previous commitments and pledges made during Biden’s administration, making it difficult to draw clear lines of attribution.

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The Role of Foreign Investments

It’s also important to note that the "Trump Effect" website focuses primarily on domestic investments and overlooks significant foreign investments. For example:

• UAE's $1.4 trillion investment over 10 years and Japan’s increase of $216.7 billion were not included in the website’s claims, even though these foreign deals have significantly boosted U.S. investment figures under Trump’s presidency.

• These foreign deals add another layer of complexity, as the $5.1 trillion in promised investments reported by the White House includes both domestic and foreign pledges.

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Summary Table of Investment Claims and Reviews

Claim/Review Source	Amount Claimed ($ Trillion)	Amount Verified ($ Trillion)	Notes
Trump's Boast	14	-	No breakdown provided by White House.
Trump Effect Website	2.6	-	As of July 2, 2025, includes over 70 projects.
Reuters Review	-	1.3 (under Biden/routine)	Nearly half of $2.6 trillion; includes pre-Trump incentives.
Al Jazeera Fact-Check	10	5.1 (total promised)	Rated false; $4.9 trillion shortfall; $4.3 trillion newly pledged.
CBS News Fact-Check	9	-	Many predate Trump; vague future pledges.

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Conclusion

In conclusion, the "Trump Effect" website significantly exaggerates the impact of Trump’s economic policies on U.S. investments. Independent analyses indicate that a substantial portion of the claimed investments originated under Biden, or were pre-existing corporate plans. The overlap with Biden-era policies, particularly the CHIPS Act, complicates the attribution of success to Trump’s policies. This analysis suggests that while some investments may have been influenced by Trump’s tax cuts and deregulation, many of the projects credited to his administration were actually initiated or driven by policies under Biden. For further details, refer to recent reviews from Reuters, Al Jazeera, and CBS News.

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