Thailand to offer US more trade concessions to avert 36% tariff, Bloomberg News reports

Key Points

• It seems likely that Thailand is offering more trade concessions to the US to avoid a 36% tariff, as reported by Bloomberg News on July 6, 2025.

• Research suggests the US has threatened this tariff if negotiations fail before July 9, 2025, when a 90-day pause expires.

• The evidence leans toward Thailand proposing to boost bilateral trade and reduce its trade surplus by 70% in five years, aiming for a balance in seven to eight years.

• There is controversy around the potential economic impact, with Thai officials estimating a 1% GDP reduction if the tariff is imposed.

Background

Thailand's efforts are part of broader negotiations with the US, which has threatened higher tariffs on various countries as part of trade policy adjustments. The 36% tariff on Thai imports is significant, given the current 10% cap for most nations, set to potentially increase unless deals are reached.

Recent Developments

As of July 6, 2025, Thailand is making a last-ditch effort to avert the tariff, offering greater market access for US farm and industrial products. The proposal aims to address the $46 billion trade surplus, with a deadline for revised offers before July 9, 2025.

Implications

If successful, Thailand hopes for a tariff rate of 10%, though they might accept up to 20%. Failure could lead to economic challenges, including a potential 1% GDP hit, affecting exporters, farmers, and SMEs in Thailand.

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Survey Note: Thailand's Trade Concessions to Avert US 36% Tariff

This note provides a comprehensive overview of Thailand's efforts to offer the United States more trade concessions to avoid a 36% tariff, as reported by Bloomberg News on July 6, 2025. The analysis is based on recent news articles from Reuters, Bloomberg, and social media posts on X (formerly Twitter), reflecting the situation as of 12:03 PM PDT on July 6, 2025.

Context and Background

The phrase "Thailand to offer US more trade concessions to avert 36% tariff" encapsulates Thailand's response to a US threat to impose a 36% levy on its imports, part of a broader tariff policy under review. The current tariff cap for most nations is 10%, but a 90-day pause, set to expire on July 9, 2025, has created urgency for negotiations. This pause follows initial tariff announcements, with Thailand facing significant pressure due to its $46 billion trade surplus with the US.

Thailand's trade relationship with the US has been strained by this surplus, with some reports suggesting that Chinese factories in Thailand are using the country as a base to export to the US, avoiding tariffs on Chinese goods. This context explains the high proposed tariff rate of 36%, calculated in part from the trade imbalance, as noted in social media discussions.

Recent Developments

As of July 6, 2025, Thailand is making a "last-ditch effort" to avert the punitive 36% tariff, offering greater market access for US farm and industrial products. Bloomberg News and Reuters report that Thailand's latest proposal aims to boost bilateral trade volume and reduce its trade surplus by 70% within five years, with a goal to reach a trade balance in seven to eight years. The revised offer must be submitted before July 9, 2025, the deadline for the tariff pause expiration.

Thai officials have estimated that a 36% tariff could shave off at least one percentage point of Thailand's gross domestic product (GDP) this year, highlighting the economic stakes. The best-case scenario for Thailand is maintaining a 10% tariff, though they might accept a range between 10% and 20%, according to Reuters.

Social media posts on X provide additional context, with @joshdcaplan noting Thailand's aim to reduce the surplus by 70% in five years, and @SleeplessBKKNew explaining the tariff's basis in trade imbalance and Chinese factory involvement. Other posts, like @Investingcom and @zerohedge, confirm Thailand's negotiations with the US on the 36% tariff, dating back to April 2025, indicating a prolonged effort.

Market Reactions and Economic Impacts

The potential 36% tariff has raised concerns among Thai exporters, farmers, and small and medium enterprises (SMEs), especially those in the supply chain. Social media discussions, such as @sirotek's post, highlight the potential impact on millions of livelihoods, emphasizing the urgency of the negotiations. The economic impact is significant, with Thai officials estimating a 1% GDP reduction, which could affect growth and employment.

Market reactions are not detailed in the available data, but the urgency suggests potential volatility if negotiations fail. The US's broader tariff strategy, affecting multiple countries, adds complexity, with Thailand's case being one of many races to secure deals before the July 9 deadline.

Negotiations and Potential Outcomes

Thailand's proposal includes offering greater market access for US goods, aiming to address the trade imbalance. The desired outcome is a tariff rate of 10%, aligning with the current cap, but there is flexibility to accept up to 20%. Failure to reach an agreement could lead to the 36% tariff, with significant economic consequences for Thailand.

The negotiations are part of a larger landscape where countries like Japan, the EU, and India are also seeking mini-deals to avoid higher tariffs, as mentioned in related reports. Thailand's efforts are described as critical, with Bloomberg noting a "last-ditch" push, suggesting high stakes and potential for compromise or delay.

Broader Implications and US Policy Context

The tariff threat is part of a broader US trade policy under review, with former President Donald Trump indicating no extension of the 90-day pause, as noted in related discussions. This policy affects global trade dynamics, with countries racing to secure deals. For Thailand, the implications include potential economic slowdown, increased costs for exporters, and pressure on domestic industries.

The Federal Reserve and global economic stability are also mentioned in related contexts, though not directly tied to Thailand. However, the broader uncertainty around US trade policy could impact global markets, with Thailand's case being a microcosm of these tensions.

Detailed Timeline and Impact Summary

To organize the key events and impacts, the following table summarizes the timeline and economic effects:

Detail	Information
Tariff threat date	July 6, 2025 (reported)
90-day tariff pause expiration date	July 9, 2025
Current tariff cap	10% for most nations
Proposed US tariff rate	36%
Thailand's trade surplus with US	$46 billion
Thailand's proposal	Reduce surplus by 70% in 5 years, reach balance in 7-8 years
Desired tariff rate (best case)	10%
Acceptable tariff range	10% to 20%
Estimated GDP impact if 36% tariff imposed	At least 1% reduction
Reporting sources	Bloomberg News, Reuters, X posts (@joshdcaplan, @Reuters, etc.)

This table encapsulates the critical data points, providing a clear reference for understanding the economic context.

Conclusion

Thailand's offer of more trade concessions to the US to avert a 36% tariff reflects a critical moment in bilateral trade relations, with negotiations intensifying before the July 9, 2025, deadline. The proposal aims to address the significant trade surplus, with potential economic impacts if unsuccessful. While markets show resilience in related contexts, the stakes are high for Thailand, with ongoing discussions suggesting possible compromises. Further developments in the next few days will likely clarify the path forward, impacting Thailand's economy and global trade dynamics.

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