Research suggests the US is planning to restrict AI chip exports to Malaysia and Thailand due to concerns about smuggling into China.
It seems likely that these curbs, still in draft form, could affect companies like Nvidia and disrupt supply chains, though measures may ease the transition.
The evidence leans toward this being part of a broader strategy to limit China's access to advanced technology, with controversy over its impact on US allies and global trade.
The US is focusing on preventing advanced AI chips, crucial for technology and military applications, from reaching China through intermediaries like Malaysia and Thailand, key players in semiconductor packaging.
The Commerce Department is drafting rules to restrict shipments, with the rule not yet finalized and potentially subject to change. It includes temporary license-free shipping for US and allied companies to mitigate disruptions.
This could strain relations with Malaysia and Thailand, with critics arguing it might push China to accelerate its domestic chip production, while supporters see it as necessary for national security.
Supporting URLs:
Bloomberg: US Plans AI Chip Curbs on Malaysia, Thailand Over China Concerns
Business Times: US plans AI chip curbs on Malaysia, Thailand over China concerns
As of July 4, 2025, the United States is planning to impose restrictions on the export of advanced AI chips to Malaysia and Thailand, driven by concerns that these countries could serve as intermediaries for smuggling such technology into China. This move is part of a broader strategy to limit China's access to critical technology, particularly in the context of ongoing US-China tensions over semiconductors and their military applications. Below is a detailed examination of the plans, their rationale, status, and implications, drawing from recent reports to ensure accuracy and depth.
AI chips, such as those produced by Nvidia Corp., are essential for advanced computing, particularly in artificial intelligence and machine learning, with applications ranging from data centers to military systems. The US has been increasingly concerned about China's ability to acquire these chips, given their potential to enhance China's technological and military capabilities. Previous administrations, including the Biden administration, implemented export controls on AI chips to China, but the Trump administration is now taking additional steps to close loopholes, focusing on countries suspected of facilitating smuggling.
Malaysia and Thailand are significant in the global semiconductor supply chain, particularly in packaging and assembly, which involves encasing chips for use in devices. They are also seeing growth in data center infrastructure, raising concerns that these facilities could be used to circumvent US export controls. This regional context has led the US to target these countries in its latest policy proposals.
Targeted Countries: The US plans to restrict shipments of AI chips to Malaysia and Thailand, as reported by Bloomberg and Business Times on July 4, 2025.
Reason for Curbs: The primary concern is preventing semiconductor smuggling into China, particularly advanced AI processors from companies like Nvidia, which could end up enhancing China's technological and military capabilities. This is part of a broader effort to ensure that US technology does not fall into the "wrong hands," as stated by Senator Mike Rounds in April 2025 legislation aimed at preventing AI chip smuggling into China.
Involved US Department: The Commerce Department is leading the effort to draft these new export control rules, with President Donald Trump's administration driving the policy shift.
Status of the Rule: As of July 4, 2025, the rule is still in draft form and has not been finalized. This means the details could still change before implementation, adding a layer of uncertainty to the plans.
Additional Measures:
The curbs on Malaysia and Thailand are expected to be paired with the formal rescission of global curbs from the "AI diffusion rule," a policy implemented during the Biden administration's term, as noted in the Business Times article. This reflects Trump's strategy to overhaul previous approaches, announced in May 2025 as a "bold, inclusive strategy."
Existing restrictions on China, imposed in 2022 and ramped up since, will remain in place. Additionally, over 40 other countries are already subject to restrictions due to smuggling concerns from a 2023 measure, indicating a global scope to US export controls.
Easing Measures for Companies:
To mitigate immediate disruptions, firms headquartered in the US and a "few dozen friendly nations" will be allowed to ship AI chips to Malaysia and Thailand without a license for a few months after the rule is published, according to the Business Times.
Certain exemptions will be provided to prevent supply chain disruptions, recognizing the crucial role of South-east Asian facilities in packaging, which is essential for the global semiconductor industry.
Regional Context:
South-east Asia, including Malaysia and Thailand, has seen significant investments in data centers, such as Oracle in Malaysia, and a surge in chip shipments. While Malaysia has pledged to scrutinize such activities, the US remains concerned about potential circumvention, as highlighted in the Business Times report.
A recent court case in Singapore, where three men were charged with defrauding customers about AI servers (possibly containing Nvidia chips) shipped from Singapore to Malaysia, underscores the challenges of enforcing export controls in the region, as mentioned in the same article.
The following table summarizes the key details of the proposed restrictions:
Detail | Information |
---|---|
Countries Targeted | Malaysia, Thailand |
Companies Affected | Nvidia Corp. and potentially others, especially US and allied firms |
Reason for Restriction | Prevent semiconductor smuggling into China |
US Department Involved | Commerce Department |
Status of Rule | Draft, not finalized, could still change |
Additional Measures | Paired with rescission of AI diffusion rule; existing China restrictions maintained |
Easing Provisions | License-free shipping for US and allied firms for a few months post-publication |
Regional Context | South-east Asia's role in packaging and data centers, potential smuggling routes |
Nvidia's Position: As the dominant AI chip maker, Nvidia declined to comment on the proposed restrictions, according to the Business Times. Its CEO, Jensen Huang, has previously stated there is no evidence of AI chip diversion, suggesting the company may challenge the necessity of the curbs.
Thai and Malaysian Governments: Both governments have not responded to requests for comment, leaving their official stances unclear. This lack of response could indicate either a wait-and-see approach or potential diplomatic concerns about the US policy.
Strategic Overhaul: The Trump administration's move is part of a broader strategy to tighten controls on technology exports, reflecting a shift toward protectionism and national security priorities. This is evident in Trump's May 2025 announcement of a "bold, inclusive strategy" for AI, which includes enhancing export controls to prevent adversaries from accessing critical technology.
Global Semiconductor Industry: The restrictions could disrupt supply chains, given Malaysia and Thailand's crucial role in packaging and assembly. However, the easing measures, such as temporary license-free shipping, aim to mitigate immediate impacts. The Business Times notes that South-east Asian facilities are vital for packaging, which could be affected if the curbs are too restrictive.
Unaddressed Issues: Security conditions for US chips in overseas data centers, particularly in the Middle East, remain a concern, as mentioned in the Business Times. The US has not yet addressed how to ensure these chips are not misused in such facilities, indicating potential gaps in the policy.
Impact on Allies: The restrictions could strain relations with Malaysia and Thailand, both of which are key US allies in the region. The US must balance its security concerns with maintaining strong diplomatic and economic ties, which could be tested by these curbs.
Controversy and Debate:
Critics argue that previous US restrictions on China have ironically catalyzed its progress in developing its own semiconductor industry, as noted in The Star's report from July 4, 2025. This raises questions about whether the new curbs on Malaysia and Thailand will be effective or merely push China to further accelerate its domestic chip production.
There is also backlash against the perceived overreach of US export controls, with previous Biden-era policies facing resistance from the tech industry and international partners, as reported by BankInfoSecurity on January 17, 2025. Similar concerns could emerge if the new rules are seen as disruptive to global trade.
The US is planning to restrict AI chip exports to Malaysia and Thailand as part of its strategy to prevent advanced technology from reaching China through indirect means. This move, still in draft form and subject to change, reflects the Trump administration's focus on national security and its overhaul of previous AI export policies. While measures are in place to ease the transition for companies, the restrictions could have significant implications for the global semiconductor industry, US relations with South-east Asian allies, and the ongoing US-China technology competition. As the rule is not yet finalized, further developments are expected, and stakeholders should monitor updates closely.