Beijing Braces for US Trade Deals That Aim to Shut Out China

2025-07-03 GGAMen游戏资讯 1

Key Points

Research suggests the US is pursuing trade deals with countries like Vietnam, India, and the UK that may restrict Chinese content or counter China's trade practices, potentially shutting out China.
It seems likely that these deals, with deadlines like July 9, 2025, could lead to higher tariffs on goods with significant Chinese components, impacting China's market access.
The evidence leans toward China bracing for these developments, warning other nations and preparing countermeasures, though direct US-China negotiations on specific issues continue.

Background

The US is actively negotiating bilateral trade agreements with various countries, aiming to reduce reliance on China and address perceived unfair trade practices. These deals often include provisions that could limit Chinese influence in global trade, such as restrictions on Chinese content in products and higher tariffs on transshipped goods.

China's Response

China has reacted by warning countries against making deals detrimental to its interests and has criticised agreements like the US-UK deal, stating they should not harm third parties. China is also open to direct talks with the US on specific issues, such as rare earth exports, but remains firm on protecting its rights.

Implications

These developments reflect a broader geopolitical competition, with potential economic impacts on global trade dynamics, especially as deadlines like July 9, 2025, approach.

Supporting URLs:

Comprehensive Analysis of Beijing’s Response to US Trade Deals Aiming to Exclude China as of July 3, 2025

This section provides a detailed examination of the US’s recent trade strategies and China’s reactions, focusing on bilateral agreements that may exclude or disadvantage China. The analysis is grounded in recent news reports, official statements, and economic data, ensuring a thorough understanding of the developments as of 02:14 AM PDT on Thursday, July 3, 2025.

Background and Context

The US trade policy under President Donald Trump has been characterised by a strategy of imposing tariffs and negotiating bilateral trade deals, often under initiatives like the “90 in 90” plan, aiming to sign 90 trade agreements in 90 days. This approach has been particularly focused on addressing trade imbalances, reducing reliance on Chinese manufacturing, and enforcing trade rules. Recent developments, including the July 9, 2025, deadline for tariff negotiations, have intensified these efforts, with the US pushing for agreements that could limit China’s influence in global trade.

Recent economic trends, including shifting manufacturing bases and ongoing trade disputes, have shaped these negotiations. The US has maintained high tariffs on Chinese goods, reaching 145% at one point, now reduced to 55% in some cases, while seeking alternative trade partners to diversify supply chains. China, as the largest trading partner for many Asian economies and a significant player in global trade, is directly affected by these moves.

Details of US Trade Deals Potentially Excluding China

The US is actively negotiating and finalising trade deals with various countries, many of which include provisions that restrict Chinese content or counter perceived unfair trade practices by China. Key details include:

United Kingdom: The US finalised a trade deal with the UK, signed at the G7 summit and implemented on June 30, 2025. This agreement reduces tariffs on UK exports to the US, particularly for cars and aerospace, and increases market access for US agricultural products. However, steel and aluminium tariffs remain unresolved, with potential increases to 50% by July 9, 2025, if not addressed. This deal, while not explicitly targeting China, aligns with US efforts to strengthen ties with allies, potentially reducing reliance on Chinese markets.
Vietnam: On July 2, 2025, Trump announced a preliminary trade pact with Vietnam, imposing a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US and a 40% tariff on transshipped goods, aimed at preventing Chinese manufacturers from using Vietnam as a conduit to bypass US tariffs on China. Vietnam agreed to open its market to American goods without tariffs, including preferential access for large-engine cars. This deal, described as a framework, is part of the US strategy to diversify trade and reduce dependence on China, with economic data showing Vietnam’s growing role as the sixth-top source of US imports in 2024, up from ninth in 2019.
India: Negotiations are ongoing, with the US pushing for “rules of origin” requiring at least 60% of a product’s value to be added locally to qualify as “Made in India” for trade benefits, while India seeks to reduce this to around 35%. This disagreement reflects efforts to ensure products exported to the US do not include significant Chinese components, potentially shutting out China from Indian supply chains.
Mexico and Canada: Existing agreements, such as the USMCA, have provisions mirroring the Vietnam deal, imposing higher tariffs on goods with significant Chinese components, reinforcing the US strategy to limit China’s indirect market access.
Other Countries: The US is in talks with major Asian and European trading partners, including Japan, South Korea, the European Union, Thailand, Cambodia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Switzerland, to form new agreements. These negotiations often include commitments on supply chain security, export controls, and ownership rules in key sectors, with deadlines like July 9, 2025, for finalising deals. Countries without agreements by this date may face higher US tariffs, further pressuring them to align with US policies against China.

The following table summarises the status of key US trade negotiations as of recent updates:

Country	Status	Date of Last Publicly Reported Update	Key Details
U.K.	Finalized	June 16, 2025	Reduces tariffs on UK exports (cars, aerospace); steel, aluminum tariffs unresolved, potential 50% by July 9, 2025
India	Negotiations Ongoing	June 30, 2025	US pushes 60% local value added, India wants 35%; disagreements on agriculture, dairy
Vietnam	Negotiations Ongoing	June 25, 2025	Expects to finalize before July 9; 20% tariff on exports, 40% on transshipped goods
Mexico	Negotiations Ongoing	June 24, 2025	Focus on quota system to reduce 50% tariffs on steel imports
European Union	Negotiations Ongoing	June 26, 2025	New US proposal; EU preparing contingency measures if no agreement by July 9
Canada	Negotiations Ongoing	June 30, 2025	Resumed after removing digital services tax; aim to complete before July 21, 2025

This table highlights the breadth of US efforts, with many negotiations ongoing and deadlines approaching, underscoring the urgency and strategic intent to exclude or disadvantage China.

China’s Reaction and Preparations

China has responded to these US trade deals with a mix of warnings, criticisms, and preparations for potential countermeasures, reflecting its concern over being shut out of global trade networks:

Official Warnings: China has warned countries against making trade deals with the US that are detrimental to its interests, emphasising that it will take countermeasures to safeguard its rights. For instance, on April 21, 2025, China’s Foreign Ministry stated it firmly opposes any deals at China’s expense, as reported by AP News and Reuters. This warning extends to countries like Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea, which are key US allies and trading partners.
Criticism of Specific Deals: China has criticised the US-UK trade deal, with statements on May 14, 2025, from ABC News indicating that no agreement should “target or harm any third party,” implicitly referring to China. This reflects China’s view that such deals are part of a broader strategy to isolate it economically.
Retaliatory Measures: China has retaliated against US tariffs, imposing 125% duties on US imports in response to the US’s 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, as noted in AP News. These tariffs have spooked exporters, stalled shipments, and threatened the global economy, with China describing US actions as “economic bullying.”
Openness to Talks: Despite tensions, China has shown openness to direct negotiations with the US on specific issues. For example, on June 27, 2025, the US and China confirmed details of a trade framework allowing rare earth exports and easing tech restrictions, as reported by CNBC. This agreement, while de-escalating some tensions, does not address the broader strategy of US deals excluding China.
Economic Leverage: As the larger trade partner for most Asian economies, China has significant leverage, warning of consequences if its interests are threatened, as mentioned in the Yahoo Finance article. This leverage is particularly evident in Europe, China’s largest export destination for electric vehicles, with $12 billion in Chinese investment last year, raising concerns about rising trade tensions.

Methodological Considerations and Supporting Data

The analysis is derived from recent news reports from reputable sources, including Yahoo Finance, AP News, Reuters, ABC News, CNBC, and HK Law, which provide official statements, market data, and negotiation updates. For instance, US Census Bureau data was used for trade deficit figures, and market reactions were tracked through tariff announcements and economic impact assessments. The forecasts and implications are based on these sources, acknowledging the complexity of trade negotiations and potential for deviation from expected outcomes.

Potential Influences and Uncertainties

Several factors may influence the outcomes of these trade deals and China’s response:

Retaliation Risks: China’s potential retaliatory measures, such as further tariffs or economic sanctions, could impact global trade flows, particularly for countries aligning with the US.
Implementation Challenges: The framework nature of some deals, like the Vietnam agreement, and ongoing negotiations with multiple countries may lead to disputes or delays, affecting their effectiveness in excluding China.
Global Market Volatility: Both US deals and China’s reactions have caused uncertainty for exporters, manufacturers, and businesses, with subdued market reactions reflecting concerns over sustainability, as noted by Newsweek.

Comparative Analysis

The following table compares the US strategy with China’s response, highlighting key aspects:

Aspect	US Strategy	China’s Response
Trade Deals	Bilateral agreements with provisions restricting Chinese content, e.g., Vietnam 20%/40% tariffs	Warns countries against detrimental deals, criticizes US-UK deal
Tariff Levels	Imposed 145% on Chinese goods, now 55% in some cases	Retaliated with 125% tariffs on US imports
Economic Impact	Aims to reduce reliance on China, diversify trade	Describes US actions as economic bullying, threatens countermeasures
Negotiation Approach	Pushes deadlines like July 9, 2025, for agreements	Open to talks on specific issues, e.g., rare earth exports

Economic and Market Implications

The US’s pursuit of trade deals excluding China highlights a dynamic between geopolitical competition and economic strategy, with potential long-term impacts on global trade networks. China is bracing for these developments, through warnings and preparations, underscoring the stakes for its economic interests, particularly in Asia and Europe. The situation reflects a fragmented trade landscape, with significant implications for supply chains, market access, and international relations.

Conclusion

Based on the available data, the US is pursuing trade deals with countries like Vietnam, India, the UK, and others, aiming to restrict Chinese content and counter its trade practices, with deadlines like July 9, 2025, intensifying efforts. China is bracing for these developments, warning other nations and preparing countermeasures, while also engaging in direct negotiations on specific issues. The analysis reflects the complexity of these negotiations, acknowledging potential economic and geopolitical implications for all stakeholders.

Supporting URLs:

• • HK Law: Status of US Bilateral Trade Negotiations as the July 9 Deadline Approaches

2025-07-03 17:18:38