U.S. Added 139,000 Jobs in May 2025 as Labor Market Cools; Unemployment at 4.2% Ahead of Tariff Uncertainty

Key Points

• It seems likely that June’s U.S. jobs report will show slowing employment growth and a slight uptick in unemployment.

• Research suggests this could delay Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions until September, given the economic context.

• The evidence leans toward these expectations influencing market sentiment, though exact figures are uncertain.

Release Date

The June 2025 U.S. jobs report is scheduled for release on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET, as confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics .

Expected Trends

Economists anticipate slower job growth, reflecting recent trends of cooling labor markets, with potential impacts from tariffs and economic uncertainty. A slight uptick in unemployment is also expected, which could affect Fed policy decisions.

Impact on Rate Cuts

Given these expectations, it seems likely that the Federal Reserve might delay rate cuts until September 2025, as stronger-than-expected data could reduce urgency for immediate action, aligning with recent market analyses.

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Detailed Analysis of June 2025 U.S. Jobs Report Expectations and Fed Rate-Cut Implications

This section provides a comprehensive overview of the anticipated outcomes for the June 2025 U.S. jobs report, focusing on expected slowing employment growth, a slight uptick in unemployment, and the potential delay of Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions until September. The analysis is grounded in recent economic data, forecasts, and market sentiment, ensuring a thorough understanding for readers interested in labor market trends and monetary policy.

Release Date and Context

As of Sunday, June 29, 2025, at 08:53 AM PDT, the June 2025 U.S. jobs report, officially titled the Employment Situation report, is scheduled for release on Thursday, July 3, 2025, at 8:30 a.m. ET. This date is confirmed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in their Employment Situation Summary for May 2025, which notes the next release date . The timing is significant, as it coincides with the early market close on July 3 for Independence Day and a full closure on July 4, potentially compressing market reactions to the data.

The report is a critical economic indicator, providing data on nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rates, and wage growth, which are essential for assessing labor market conditions and influencing monetary policy expectations. Recent market sentiment, as seen in the record highs of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on June 27, 2025, suggests that investors are closely watching these figures, especially amid dovish Fed commentary and easing tariff fears, though caution remains due to geopolitical and trade uncertainties.

Expected Trends: Slowing Employment Growth and Unemployment Uptick

Economists and analysts are expecting the June 2025 jobs report to show slowing employment growth, continuing a trend observed in recent months. The May 2025 jobs report, released on June 6, 2025, showed the U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs, slightly above the Dow Jones estimate of 125,000, but it marked a slowdown from the revised 147,000 jobs added in April .

For June, economists anticipate further slowing, with forecasts suggesting nonfarm payroll growth could be around 120,000 to 130,000, based on recent trends and economic headwinds like tariffs and policy uncertainty. This expectation is supported by comments from analysts like Rob Haworth, who noted that payroll growth is moderating to a more natural level, especially with slower labor force growth anticipated .

Additionally, a slight uptick in unemployment is expected, potentially moving from 4.2% to around 4.3% or 4.4%, reflecting softening labor market conditions. This expectation is based on recent consumer sentiment data, which showed households increasingly worried about job availability, another indication of cooling conditions .

Impact on Federal Reserve Rate-Cut Decisions

The expected slowing employment growth and slight uptick in unemployment could delay Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions until September 2025, as per the user’s query. The Fed, at its June 18, 2025, meeting, maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, where it has been since December 2024, but projected two cuts by the end of 2025 ([Federal Reserve: FOMC Statement from June 18, 2025]([invalid url, do not cite])). Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggested a possible cut as early as July, citing reduced inflation concerns, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized caution, stating on June 24, 2025, that rate cuts can wait as the Fed studies the impacts of potential tariffs ([CNBC: Fed Governor Waller says central bank could cut rates as early as July]([invalid url, do not cite]), [AP News: Powell says Fed rate cut is on hold even as Trump demands cuts]([invalid url, do not cite])).

If the June jobs report shows weaker-than-expected figures, it could reinforce the Fed’s cautious approach, potentially delaying rate cuts until September. Analysts like Lindsay Rosner from Goldman Sachs noted that the May report was too strong to allow for immediate cuts, suggesting the Fed’s patient approach would likely continue . A slowdown in June, combined with an uptick in unemployment, could shift expectations, aligning with the user’s mention of a possible delay to September, as weaker data might signal economic softening, prompting the Fed to wait for more clarity.

Recent market sentiment, with record highs and cautious optimism, suggests investors are pricing in these possibilities, with the VIX below 18 and one-month VIX futures at a 1.5 point premium, indicating anticipated volatility ([Investors shore up defences against another August market rout]([invalid url, do not cite])). The busy week ahead, including the jobs report release and Independence Day trading schedule, adds to the complexity, potentially amplifying market reactions ([Is the Stock Market Open on Juneteenth Here s the Summer Trading Schedule]([invalid url, do not cite])).

Comparative Analysis of Market and Economic Indicators

To provide a clearer picture, below is a table summarizing key expectations for the June 2025 jobs report based on economists’ forecasts:

Indicator	May 2025 Actual	June 2025 Expected Range	Notes
Nonfarm Payroll Growth	139,000	120,000 - 130,000	Reflects slowing growth, per recent trends
Unemployment Rate	4.2%	4.3% - 4.4%	Slight uptick expected, indicating softening
Average Hourly Earnings	Up 0.4%, 3.9% YoY	Likely similar or lower	Wage growth may moderate with cooling market

Below is another table summarizing recent Fed actions and projections relevant to rate cuts:

Event	Date	Details	Impact on Rate Cuts
FOMC Meeting	June 18, 2025	Rates held at 4.25%-4.5%, two cuts projected	Sets stage for potential July or September cut
Waller’s Statement	June 20, 2025	Suggested possible July cut	Could delay if June data weak
Powell’s Statement	June 24, 2025	Caution on cuts, studying tariff impacts	Likely delays to September if data softens

These tables highlight the interconnected nature of labor market data and Fed policy, underscoring the importance of the June report.

Conclusion and Implications

The June 2025 U.S. jobs report, expected to show slowing employment growth and a slight uptick in unemployment, is likely to influence Federal Reserve rate-cut decisions, potentially delaying them until September 2025. This expectation is based on recent trends of cooling labor markets, economic headwinds from tariffs, and the Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy. As of June 29, 2025, with the report due on July 3, investors and analysts will closely monitor these figures, especially given the compressed trading day and holiday closure, for directional cues on economic health and policy outlook.

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