Trump’s Tariffs 2025: Record $23B Revenue, Economic Impact, and Who Really Pays

Key Points

• Research suggests Trump's tariff revenue is on pace for another monthly record in June 2025, potentially exceeding May's $22.3 billion.

• The evidence leans toward significant increases, with June collections estimated at $27 billion by June 24, suggesting a new high.

• There is controversy around the economic impact, with some arguing tariffs raise inflation and others seeing benefits for federal revenue.

Background
President Trump's tariff policies in 2025 have led to a surge in customs duties, with recent data indicating record-breaking monthly revenues. This analysis explores whether June 2025 continues this trend.

Recent Data
As of June 24, 2025, tariff revenue for June alone is reported at $27 billion for the first 24 days, suggesting a strong pace. May 2025 set a record at $22.3 billion, and projections indicate June could surpass this, potentially reaching over $33 billion if the daily rate holds.

Economic Context
Tariff revenues have increased by 85.7% year-to-date compared to 2024, with totals reaching $94 billion by June 27, 2025. This surge supports federal revenue but raises debates on inflation and trade impacts.

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A Comprehensive Analysis of Trump's Tariff Revenue Potentially Setting Another Monthly Record in June 2025

As of 09:52 AM PDT on Saturday, June 28, 2025, recent data and projections indicate that President Donald Trump's tariff revenue is on pace to set another monthly record in June 2025, potentially exceeding the previous record set in May 2025. This note provides a detailed examination of the revenue trends, the factors driving the increase, and the broader economic implications, drawing from recent reports, X posts, and analyses.

Context and Background

In 2025, President Trump has implemented aggressive tariff policies, including a 10% baseline tariff on all countries effective April 5, 2025, and higher rates for specific trading partners, as announced in a White House fact sheet on April 2, 2025.

Trump has suggested that tariff revenues could eventually replace income taxes for those making less than $200,000 per year, though estimates suggest they cover less than 25% of that cost if import volumes fall .

Recent Performance and Monthly Records

May 2025 set a new monthly record for tariff revenue at $22.3 billion, nearly three times the amount collected in May 2024, according to X posts and confirmed by Newsweek on May 30, 2025 .

For June 2025, recent X posts provide insights into collections. On June 26, 2025, @GregDaco posted that the U.S. raised $27 billion in customs duties in June through June 24, 2025 .

To estimate the full-month revenue for June, assuming a consistent daily rate, the $27 billion for 24 days (June 1 to June 24) implies a daily rate of $27 billion / 24 ≈ $1.125 billion per day. For the full 30 days of June, this projects to 30 * $1.125 billion = $33.75 billion, significantly higher than May's $22.3 billion, supporting the claim of another monthly record.

Data Analysis and Projections

The following table summarizes key data points for tariff revenue in 2025, based on available information:

Date	Tariff Revenue (Billions USD)	Notes
As of May 31, 2025	~68.23 (est.)	Based on Newsweek, total year-to-date as of May 28, 2025, includes May at $22.3 billion.
May 2025 (full month)	22.3	Record set, per multiple X posts on June 2, 2025.
June 1 to June 24, 2025	27	Per X post by @GregDaco on June 26, 2025, for customs duties in June.
As of June 20, 2025	75	Per Politico tracker, year-to-date tariff revenue.
As of June 27, 2025	94	Per X post by @LG234976893626, year-to-date tariff revenue.

Given the $27 billion collected in the first 24 days of June, the projected total for June 2025, at a daily rate of $1.125 billion, is $33.75 billion, exceeding May's record. This projection aligns with X posts suggesting June is on pace to break records, though exact figures for June 28 and 29 are not yet available.

Factors Driving the Surge

Several factors contribute to the increased tariff revenue in June 2025:

• Tariff Rate Increases: The doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs and expansion to household appliances, effective in early June, likely boosted collections .

• Import Surge: In the first quarter of 2025, U.S. firms and consumers stockpiled foreign goods before tariffs, causing imports to soar 41.3%, which may have led to higher duties in subsequent months .

• Economic Policy: Trump's focus on reciprocity and national security tariffs, as outlined in the April 2, 2025, fact sheet, has increased effective tariff rates, with J.P. Morgan Research estimating an average effective rate of ~9.7% .

Controversy and Economic Implications

The surge in tariff revenue is controversial, with debates on its economic impact. Proponents, including Trump, argue it strengthens federal revenue, potentially reducing the deficit, as noted in NPR on June 9, 2025 .

Historical Context

Historically, tariff revenues have been a smaller portion of federal income, with federal income taxes bringing in $2.4 trillion in 2024, compared to tariff revenues of $77 billion in 2024, as per an X post by @LG234976893626 on June 27, 2025 .

Conclusion

As of June 28, 2025, research suggests Trump's tariff revenue is on pace for another monthly record in June 2025, with collections of $27 billion in the first 24 days projecting to over $33 billion for the full month, surpassing May's $22.3 billion record. This trend is driven by increased tariff rates and import surges, though controversy persists over economic impacts like inflation and consumer costs. The evidence leans toward a record-breaking June, supported by recent X posts and projections, though exact figures for the final days of June are pending.

Key Citations

• Tracking the money Trump's tariffs are bringing in

• Trump's tariff gamble sends revenues soaring to record $23 billion in May

• Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Declares National Emergency to Increase our Competitive Edge, Protect our Sovereignty, and Strengthen our National and Economic Security

• Tariffs in the second Trump administration

• US Tariffs: What’s the Impact? | J.P. Morgan Research

• Trump tariff revenue soars 78%. Who’s paying them? : NPR

• Trump Exaggerates Tariff Revenue - FactCheck.org

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