Is Gold Still a Safe Haven? Price Wavers Despite War Tensions and Strong Dollar

Key Points

• It seems likely that gold prices edged lower in Asia despite the Middle East conflict worsening, possibly due to a stronger US dollar.

• Research suggests safe-haven buying favored the dollar over gold, impacting prices negatively.

• The evidence leans toward a 0.2% to 0.45% decline in gold prices during the Asian session on June 23, 2025.

Background

Gold is often seen as a safe-haven asset during geopolitical tensions, like the recent escalation in the Middle East involving US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. However, on June 23, 2025, during the Asian trading session, gold prices unexpectedly decreased.

Price Movement

Recent reports indicate gold prices fell, with spot gold down 0.2% at $3,362.29 per ounce and live data showing a price of $3,353.27, down 0.45%. During the Asian session, gold initially saw a modest uptick but later attracted sellers near the $3,400 mark, leading to a decline.

Possible Reasons

The decline may be linked to the US dollar strengthening by 0.2% against other currencies, making gold more expensive for non-USD holders. Additionally, safe-haven flows shifted toward the dollar following the conflict, reducing demand for gold.

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Survey Note: Detailed Analysis of Gold Prices and Middle East Conflict

This note provides a comprehensive analysis of the recent movement in gold prices during the Asian trading session on June 23, 2025, in the context of escalating Middle East tensions. It aims to explore the unexpected decline in gold prices despite the conflict, offering insights for investors and analysts.

Context and Market Overview

Gold is traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, particularly during geopolitical uncertainties such as the recent escalation in the Middle East. On June 23, 2025, the conflict worsened with US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, which typically would drive demand for gold. However, during the Asian trading session, gold prices edged lower, contradicting expectations. The current time is 09:53 PM PDT on Sunday, June 22, 2025, but given the global nature of markets, Asian sessions had already begun, with Monday, June 23, underway in Asia (e.g., Tokyo at 13:53 JST, Monday).

Detailed Price Movements

Recent financial reports provide specific data on gold price movements:

• A Reuters article from June 23, 2025, noted that gold prices edged lower on Monday, with spot gold down 0.2% at $3,362.29 per ounce, attributed to investors favoring the dollar following the US attack on Iran.

• Bloomberg Commodities data, updated at 9:27 PM EDT on June 22, 2025, showed spot gold (XAUUSD:CUR) at $3,353.27, down 0.45%, and gold futures (GC1:COM) at $3,380.40, down 0.16%, both reflecting a decline.

• Kitco's live data, updated at 9:37 PM NY Time (6:37 PM PDT) on June 22, 2025, showed a bid/ask price of $3,353.96 / $3,355.96, with a daily change of -13.02 (-0.39%), and a low/high of $3,350.69 / $3,389.90, indicating a drop from the day's high.

During the Asian session, an FXStreet article highlighted that gold struggled to capitalize on a modest uptick, attracting fresh sellers near the $3,400 mark. This suggests an initial rise followed by a reversal, aligning with the overall decline observed.

Technical and Market Factors

Several factors contributed to this unexpected movement:

• US Dollar Strength: The dollar rose 0.2% against its rivals, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies. This is detailed in the Reuters article, which links the dollar's strength to safe-haven buying flows following the US strikes on Iran.

• Safe-Haven Flows: Despite the conflict, investors shifted toward the dollar rather than gold, possibly due to perceived stability or other market dynamics. This is supported by the FXStreet article mentioning modest USD strength and the Fed’s hawkish stance as contributing factors.

• Technical Levels: The FXStreet article also provided technical levels, noting $3,400 as a strong barrier, with potential upside at $3,434-3,435 and downside risks below $3,300, indicating market resistance at higher prices.

Comparative Analysis

To contextualize, historical data shows gold prices typically rise during Middle East tensions. For instance, an X post from @FXStreetNews on June 17, 2025, noted rising gold prices due to Iran-Israel conflict fears, and another from @Reuters on June 19, 2025, reported gold firming on Israel-Iran conflict. However, recent X posts, such as @FXStreetNews on June 22, 2025, mentioned gold closing in a bullish gap but with sellers fighting back, suggesting a shift. An X post from @Trader_Bran on June 17, 2025, showed gold down 0.23%, indicating early signs of decline.

Regional Impact and Indian Market

The decline was also evident in regional markets like India, where FXStreet reported gold prices fell to 9,372.58 INR per unit (likely per 10 grams, though not specified), reflecting the global trend. This aligns with the broader Asian session movement, reinforcing the global impact.

Supporting Data Tables

Below are tables summarizing key price data and technical levels:

Source	Price (USD/oz)	Change	Time (EDT)
Reuters (Spot Gold)	$3,362.29	-0.2%	June 23, 2025
Bloomberg (Spot)	$3,353.27	-0.45%	9:27 PM, Jun 22
Bloomberg (Futures)	$3,380.40	-0.16%	9:17 PM, Jun 22
Kitco (Bid/Ask)	$3,353.96/$3,355.96	-0.39%	9:37 PM, Jun 22

Technical Levels (FXStreet)	Description
$3,400	Strong barrier, seller resistance
$3,434-3,435	Potential upside target
$3,451-3,452	Nearly two-month top
$3,323-3,322	Intermediate support
Below $3,300	Potential downside risk

Conclusion

The evidence suggests that gold prices edged lower in the Asian session on June 23, 2025, despite the Middle East conflict worsening, primarily due to a stronger US dollar and shifted safe-haven flows. This movement, initially showing a modest uptick but later declining, highlights the complex interplay of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics. Investors should monitor dollar strength and technical levels for future trends.

Key Citations

• Gold subdued as dollar gains, markets await Iran response

• Gold price reverses Asian session uptick; downside seems limited amid rising Middle East tensions

• Bloomberg Markets Commodities

• Live Gold Prices by Kitco

• Gold price closes in the bullish opening gap as sellers fight back control early Monday

• Gold price firms on Israel-Iran conflict, platinum scales over 10-year high

• US about to enter and hopefully end conflict in the Middle East

• Gold prices are rising as investors respond to growing geopolitical tensions

• War risk has not been a sustained factor in gold price performance for decades

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