Strait of Hormuz Closure Threat Grows After US Attack as Tensions Mount Between Iran, US, and China

Key Points

• It seems likely that Iran may threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the recent US attack, but closure is not certain.

• Research suggests economic and political factors may prevent Iran from closing the Strait, despite parliamentary support.

• The evidence leans toward increased oil prices due to the uncertainty, with potential global economic impacts if closed.

Current Situation

Following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, 2025, tensions have risen, with Iranian lawmakers voting to support closing the Strait of Hormuz. However, the final decision lies with higher authorities, and experts believe Iran may avoid closure due to economic risks.

Economic Implications

The Strait is critical, handling 20% of global oil trade. If closed, oil prices could spike by 30-50%, potentially reaching above $100 per barrel, affecting global markets and inflation, especially in the US.

International Response

The US has warned of further action if Iran retaliates, and has asked China, Iran's largest oil buyer, to prevent closure. China has criticized the US strikes, adding complexity to the situation.

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Comprehensive Analysis of the Strait of Hormuz Situation

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea, has become a focal point of geopolitical tension following the US attack on Iranian nuclear sites on June 21, 2025. This analysis provides a detailed examination of the current situation, potential outcomes, and broader implications, based on recent reports and expert insights as of 09:41 PM PDT on Sunday, June 22, 2025.

Background and Context

On June 21, 2025, President Donald Trump ordered airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities—Isfahan, Fordow, and Natanz—aiming to bring Iran to the negotiating table. In response, Iranian lawmakers voted to support closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route through which approximately 20% of global oil and gas flows daily. However, the final decision rests with Iran's Supreme National Security Council and ultimately Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as the parliamentary vote is advisory.

The Strait, with its narrowest point at 21 miles wide and two shipping lanes each 2 miles wide, is strategically vital. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), in the first quarter of 2025, about 15 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, plus 8 million barrels of petroleum products, were transported through the Strait daily, accounting for roughly 20% of global oil consumption. Of this, approximately 80% is destined for Asian markets, with about 2 million barrels per day going to the US.

Iranian Threats and Historical Precedent

Iran's threat to close the Strait is not new. Historical examples, such as the Iran-Iraq war, show that Iran has been reluctant to take such drastic measures, even during intense conflicts. For instance, in 2019, Iran seized the Stena Impero tanker but did not block the entire Strait, indicating a preference for less disruptive retaliatory actions. Experts, including energy analyst Vandana Hari, argue that Iran has "little to gain and too much to lose" from closure, given its economic dependence on oil exports through the Strait.

Recent statements from Iranian officials reflect this tension. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi mentioned "a variety of options are available" without directly commenting on closure, while General Mohsen Rezaei threatened closure if Trump escalated the conflict, though this was reported before the attack. The Iranian parliament's support for closure, backed by reports from Politico, suggests a strong rhetorical stance, but the final decision remains uncertain.

Economic and Global Impact

The potential closure of the Strait poses significant economic risks. Oil prices have already reacted to the uncertainty, with Brent crude reaching $80 per barrel by June 22, 2025, up from $69 per barrel on June 12, according to Newsweek. Experts predict a 30-50% spike in oil prices if closed, potentially doubling to above $100 per barrel, as noted by Marko Papic of BCA Research in Newsweek. This could lead to higher inflation, with JPMorgan Chase analysts warning of US inflation reaching 5% and oil prices hitting $120 per barrel, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

The global impact is profound, given that countries like China (importing 1.8 million barrels per day from Iran, per Vortexa, as per BBC News), India, Japan, and South Korea rely heavily on oil through the Strait. An X post by Spencer Hakimian of Tolou Capital Management noted, "There are close to 50 large oil tankers scrambling to leave the Strait of Hormuz right now. Looks like the oil industry is expecting the Strait to be blockaded in the coming days" . This scramble reflects market anticipation of potential disruption.

Oil Transport Data (Q1 2025, EIA)	Volume
Crude Oil and Condensate	15 million barrels/day
Petroleum Products	8 million barrels/day
Total Daily Volume	~20 million barrels/day
Global Consumption Share	~20%
Destination (Approx.)	80% to Asia, 2M b/d to US

US and International Response

The US has taken a firm stance, with Trump stating on Truth Social, "ANY RETALIATION BY IRAN AGAINST THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA WILL BE MET WITH FORCE FAR GREATER THAN WHAT WAS WITNESSED TONIGHT. THANK YOU! DONALD J. TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES"

. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has called on China to prevent closure, highlighting China's close relationship with Tehran and its role as the largest buyer of Iranian oil, as reported by BBC News.

China's response has been critical of the US strikes, with UN Ambassador Fu Cong urging restraint and the state newspaper Global Times stating that US involvement has "complicated and destabilized" the Middle East situation, according to BBC News. This adds a layer of complexity, as China's economic interests align with keeping the Strait open, yet its diplomatic stance may limit its ability to influence Iran directly.

Expert Opinions and Uncertainty

Experts offer varied perspectives on the likelihood of closure. Javier Blas of Bloomberg, cited in Yahoo Finance, noted that Iran benefits from instability talk but closure would damage its economy. Greg Kennedy of King's College London told Newsweek, "This is not an act that just stays in the Gulf region, it has wider global strategic ripples," emphasizing the broader implications. Jorge León of Rystad, also in Newsweek, warned, "In an extreme scenario where Iran responds with direct strikes or targets regional oil infrastructure, oil prices will surge sharply."

Public figures like Brian Krassenstein, with over 900,000 followers on X, predicted, "U.S. Gas Prices likely Skyrocket. Potential $5–$7/gallon range depending on duration. Military Escalation Risk. U.S. Navy and allies likely to respond" , reflecting public concern over potential outcomes.

Conclusion

As of June 22, 2025, the Strait of Hormuz remains open, but the situation is highly volatile. While Iran has threatened closure, economic dependencies, historical precedent, and international pressure suggest it may avoid such a move. The uncertainty has already driven oil prices up, with potential for significant global economic disruption if the Strait is closed. The interplay of US military posture, China's economic interests, and Iran's strategic calculations will likely determine the outcome in the coming days.

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Key Citations

• Strait of Hormuz saber-rattling ramps up following US attack whether key waterway will close is less clear

• US asks China to stop Iran from closing Strait of Hormuz

• How Could Strait of Hormuz Closure Impact Americans

• Iran reportedly moves to shut Strait of Hormuz after US attacks

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