Strait of Hormuz and the Israel-Iran Conflict: Global Shipping, Oil Risks, and Strategic Tensions Explained

Key Points

• Research suggests Iran might make the Strait of Hormuz central in its conflict with Israel if the situation escalates.

• It seems likely that Iran could use the strait to disrupt oil supplies, pressuring global markets and Israel's allies.

• The evidence leans toward Iran having the military capability, but economic and international backlash could deter action.

Current Situation

Iran has not yet made the Strait of Hormuz central in its fight with Israel, focusing instead on proxy conflicts and direct strikes. However, recent threats indicate it might consider closing the strait, a critical chokepoint for 20% of global oil, in response to escalating tensions.

Potential Changes

If the conflict intensifies, such as through major Israeli strikes on Iranian assets, Iran might attempt to close or disrupt the strait. This could involve using missiles, drones, or naval mines to block shipping, aiming to spike oil prices and pressure Israel's supporters. However, this risks strong US military responses and economic harm to Iran itself, given its reliance on the strait for oil exports.

Risks and Deterrents

While Iran has the capability, closing the strait could alienate China, its largest oil customer, and invite retaliation from the US and its allies. Historical threats have not led to action, suggesting Iran uses this as leverage rather than a likely move.

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Comprehensive Analysis of Iran's Potential Use of the Strait of Hormuz in Its Conflict with Israel

Introduction

This analysis explores how Iran might make the Strait of Hormuz central in its ongoing conflict with Israel, a scenario that has not yet materialized but is under consideration amid escalating tensions. As of June 21, 2025, recent reports and analyses suggest that Iran could leverage the strait, a critical global oil chokepoint, as a strategic tool. This report synthesizes information from news articles, expert opinions, and social media discussions to provide a detailed understanding of the potential shifts and their implications.

Background on the Strait of Hormuz and the Israel-Iran Conflict

The Strait of Hormuz, located between Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates, is a narrow waterway linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, handling approximately 20% of global oil consumption, or about 18-19 million barrels per day.

The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified recently, with Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure prompting retaliatory threats. On June 13, 2025, Iranian media and officials, including lawmaker Esmail Kosari, indicated that closing the strait is under serious consideration, linking it to Israel's actions . This follows a pattern of Iran using the strait as a geopolitical leverage point, though historically, such threats have not been acted upon.

Current Status: Why the Strait Is Not Yet Central

Currently, Iran's conflict with Israel has focused on proxy wars, cyber attacks, and direct military strikes, such as Israel's surprise attack on April 2024 and subsequent escalations in June 2025 .

Potential Scenarios for Change

Research suggests several scenarios where Iran might make the Strait of Hormuz central:

• Escalation of Direct Conflict: If Israel launches major strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities or leadership, Iran might retaliate by attempting to close the strait. For instance, recent Israeli attacks have targeted IRGC naval bases, potentially hampering Iran's capabilities but also prompting stronger responses .

• Pressure on Global Markets: Iran could disrupt the strait to spike oil prices, affecting global markets and putting economic pressure on Israel's allies, particularly the US and Europe. This is seen as Iran's "geopolitical equivalent of the nuclear option," potentially doubling oil prices to $150+, as noted in an X post by @BenjaminNorton on October 4, 2024 .

• Deterrence and Leverage: Iran might threaten to close the strait to deter further Israeli actions or to negotiate with international actors. Historical threats, such as in 2018 after US sanctions, show this as a bargaining chip, though not acted upon .

Iran's capability includes cruise and ballistic missiles, kamikaze drones, naval mines, and maritime forces, suitable for disrupting the narrow waterway . However, rapid implementation could still cause significant disruptions, even if not sustained.

Risks and Deterrents

Despite these capabilities, several factors deter Iran from closing the strait:

• Economic Backlash: Closing the strait would harm Iran's own economy, as most of its daily consumption goods and oil exports rely on the route. It could also alienate China, Iran's largest oil customer, accounting for over three-quarters of its oil exports, as noted in the CNBC article .

• Military Response: The presence of the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain makes it difficult for Iran to sustain a closure, likely inviting a strong military response, especially under the current Trump administration, as mentioned in the Al Jazeera article .

• Physical Impossibility: The strait, 35 to 60 miles wide and mostly in Omani waters, is hard to close completely, with vessels able to use alternative routes via UAE and Oman, as per the CNBC article 

Historical context shows Iran has threatened closure multiple times, such as in 2011-2012 and 2018, but never acted, suggesting it's more a threat than a likely action

Comparative Analysis

To better understand the potential impact, consider the following table comparing current and potential scenarios:

Aspect	Current Status	Potential Change (If Strait Becomes Central)
Focus of Conflict	Proxy wars, direct strikes, cyber attacks	Direct disruption of global oil supplies via strait closure
Iranian Strategy	Tactical actions near strait, e.g., seizing ships	Strategic use to spike oil prices, pressure allies
Global Impact	Increased shipping caution, electronic interference	Potential oil price surge, economic downturn, international intervention
Risks for Iran	Limited, focused on regional tensions	High, including economic harm, military response, and diplomatic isolation

This table highlights the shift from tactical to strategic use and the increased stakes if Iran acts on its threats.

Implications and Interpretation

The evidence leans toward Iran having the capability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, but economic and international backlash could deter action. If the conflict escalates, such as through major Israeli strikes, Iran might see closing the strait as a necessary retaliation, despite the risks. This could lead to a broader regional conflict, involving the US and other powers, with significant global economic consequences. Public and expert reactions, as seen on X, show a mix of concern and skepticism, with some viewing it as a bluff and others as a real threat

Conclusion

In summary, Iran has not yet made the Strait of Hormuz central in its fight with Israel, but this could change if the conflict escalates, prompting Iran to use the strait as a tool for retaliation or leverage. While it has the military capability, the economic and international risks suggest it might continue using threats rather than action, unless pushed to a critical point.

Key Citations

• What is the Strait of Hormuz, could it factor into Israel-Iran conflict? | Al Jazeera

• Shipping groups are starting to shy away from the Strait of Hormuz as Israel-Iran conflict rages on | CNBC

• Could Iran Carry Out Its Threat To Shut Down The Strait Of Hormuz? | The War Zone

• Israel-Iran conflict: Why Tehran won't block the Hormuz Strait | CNBC

• Strait of Hormuz | International Crisis Group

• US Energy Information Administration

• Strait of Hormuz - Wikipedia

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