Tesla Stock Slumped After Musk-Trump Clash; Robotaxi Launch May Be a Market Lifeline

📌 Key Details

Analysts React to Political Fallout

• Baird downgraded Tesla from “Outperform” to “Neutral”, expressing concern that investor optimism around robotaxi ambitions is overblown and that the Musk–Trump feud adds fresh uncertainty .

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• Argus Research mirrored this move, shifting Tesla to “Hold” over worries that non-fundamental events—such as Musk’s political entanglements—are influencing stock sentiment .

Stock vs. Fundamentals

• Tesla stock plunged about 14–15% within a week, erasing over $150 billion in market value after the Musk–Trump showdown, though it modestly rebounded later

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• Year-to-date, the stock is down roughly 27–30%, dropping from earlier highs amid elevated volatility .

Sales Pressure in China & Europe

• China deliveries have fallen 8% year-over-year through May, with May alone plunging 30%. Weakness in Europe also contributes to global softening .

Robotaxi Initiative: A Double-Edged Sword

• Tesla plans to launch a limited robotaxi pilot (around 10 geofenced, supervised vehicles) in Austin, potentially expanding to ~1,000 units soon.

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• However, Baird estimates only ~6,000 units by late next year—far less than Musk’s “hundreds of thousands” projection—and warns of a potential “sell-the-news” reaction .

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• Investors report mixed views: while some see robotaxi as a significant long-term catalyst, others think its immediate impact may be limited .

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🧭 Contextual Insight

Political Crosswinds

• Musk’s online clash with Trump centered on Trump’s tax/spending plan and Musk’s criticism of EV subsidy cuts. Trump’s retaliation threatened to strip federal contracts or credits from Musk’s companies—including SpaceX and Tesla

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• Analysts warn the episode may alienate both political sides, leaving Tesla politically exposed and vulnerable to policy reversals .

Broader Risks

• Beyond politics and robotaxi hype, concerns include valuation stretched (~150× 2025 expected earnings), intensifying EV competition from legacy automakers, loss of U.S. tax credits, and regulatory scrutiny of Tesla’s self-driving tech .

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🔍 Outlook: Can Robotaxi Revive Tesla?

Bull Case

• If the robotaxi roll-out proceeds smoothly, analysts from Wedbush and Morgan Stanley see it as a foundational step toward a high-margin, AI-driven business—and a key to restoring investor confidence.

Bear Case

• Execution missteps, launch delays, or regulatory roadblocks could spark a sell-the-news sell-off, especially in the current sensitivity to Musk-related headlines.

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🧩 Bottom Line

Tesla is navigating a perfect storm of political backlash, softening sales, and overpriced expectations—all while betting big on the Austin robotaxi rollout. Analysts have stepped back for now, citing a wait-and-see stance ahead of this week’s event. In the short term, expect continued volatility; but in the long run, successful robotaxis could reshape investor sentiment.

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🗓 Next Watch: The official robotaxi launch by mid‑June. If Tesla delivers early-stage results promptly and cleanly, it may help steady the stock. Would you like a comparison with past Tesla "sell-the-news" events, or a breakdown of competitive rival robotaxi timelines?

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